3
Striking Finale
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 87
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Cellars Shiraz Stakes · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
74%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | Diego Herrera | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | Luis Saez | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 2-3 · tight 86/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |