Eton

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 80

Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-17	Gulfstream	Rasheed Hughes	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-10-03	Gulfstream	Jonathan Ocasio	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-08-03	Gulfstream	Miguel Vasquez	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-07-13	Gulfstream	Miguel Vasquez	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-21	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-05-23	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▬

Strength40%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/02/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
08/03/2026	2nd	11/8	93%	89%	-0.04
26/04/2026	1st	6/4	92%	100%	+0.08
23/05/2026	6th	5/2	87%	0%	-0.87
21/06/2026	7th	25/1	0%	25%	+0.25
13/07/2026	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
03/08/2026	9th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
03/10/2026	6th	40/1	0%	38%	+0.38
17/10/2026	5th	16/1	16%	20%	+0.04