Swashbuckle
8yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | Luis Fuenmayor | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gulfstream | Wesley Henry | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | Wesley Henry | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | Jonathan Ocasio | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 03/10/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |