Daunting

3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 88

Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼3

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-24	Saratoga	Jose Ortiz	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-06-05	Saratoga	Jose Ortiz	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -45.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/06/2026	9th	9/1	53%	27%	-0.25
24/07/2026	9th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71