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3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 69
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | Jorge Ruiz | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 65/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +22.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |