Subtle Sir

2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 75

Gulfstream · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-15	Gulfstream	Marcos Meneses	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-08-01	Gulfstream	Miguel Vasquez	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100

▲ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +75.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/08/2026	5th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
15/08/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60