7
Carcone
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Gulfstream | Edgar Perez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Gulfstream | Edgar Perez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |