3
Sofocles
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | Jose Morelos | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/10/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |