Valiant Winter
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 84
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | Pedro Pena | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | Pietro Moran | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | Edgard Zayas | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 18/09/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |