12
Casablanca Queen
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 12 · OR 58
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Our Dear Peggy Stakes · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | Leonel Reyes | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |