11
Smoke
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Our Dear Peggy Stakes · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Keeneland | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | D E Sheehy | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | Declan Cannon | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | Edgar Morales | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -9.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 09/10/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |