5
Proud American
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-10-02 | Gulfstream | Edgar Perez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 17/10/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 17% | -0.75 |