Lady River Lily
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | Shaun Bridgmohan | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | Shaun Bridgmohan | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | Cesar Gonzalez | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | Sahin Civaci | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | Edwin Gonzalez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 04/06/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |