5
Irish Adieu
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 95
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | Miguel Vasquez | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 73/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |