Junction Road

5yo Horse · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 96

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-11	Gulfstream	Miguel Vasquez	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-09-13	Gulfstream	Anthony Thomas	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-17	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-11	Gulfstream	Diego Herrera	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-05-23	Gulfstream	Joe Bravo	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-04-25	Gulfstream	Joe Bravo	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength36%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/01/2026	9th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
20/03/2026	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
10/04/2026	1st	2/1	89%	100%	+0.11
25/04/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	67%	+0.19
23/05/2026	2nd	10/11	95%	80%	-0.15
11/07/2026	3rd	5/4	93%	50%	-0.43
17/08/2026	6th	5/1	74%	17%	-0.57
13/09/2026	4th	13/2	66%	40%	-0.26
11/10/2026	2nd	6/1	68%	80%	+0.12