Bertie's World

2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 37

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼2

Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Santo Sanjur	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-29	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Santo Sanjur	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-09-03	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Santo Sanjur	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-07-27	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Santo Sanjur	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength32%

Delivery trend -17.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/07/2026	7th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
03/09/2026	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
29/09/2026	9th	33/1	0%	11%	+0.11
08/10/2026	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26