2
Strawberry Kisses
2yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 2 · OR 29
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alexander Crispin | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alexander Crispin | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -38.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/10/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |