Chondrite
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 66
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Mitchell Murrill | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Joseph Romero | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Jose Gutierrez | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Mitchell Murrill | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 02/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |