12
Lookout Kid
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 12 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alexander Crispin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Samuel Bermudez | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Adam Beschizza | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alex Achard | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | Edgar Morales | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-11-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Adam Beschizza | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength35%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 12/10/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |