IvyArcIvyArc
4

Storm Back

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 73

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Oaklawn Park 03/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m 125 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 55 par3/04C9OR 55C9 @ Hawthorne 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 7f110y Gd 125 · beat its mark10/05/2026 · OR 52 parC6 @ Hawthorne 24/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 61 · 1m Gd 125 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 61 par24/05C6OR 61C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 60 · 1m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 60 parC5 @ Hawthorne 28/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 64 · 7f110y Gd 125 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 64 par28/06C5OR 64C5 @ Hawthorne 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m 123 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 68 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 75 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 75 par19/08C5OR 75C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark12/10/2026 · OR 73 par12/10C5OR 73projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12Horseshoe IndianapolisJavier Tavares?10th10th0
2026-09-17Horseshoe IndianapolisJavier Tavares?4th4th0
2026-08-19Horseshoe IndianapolisJavier Tavares?7th7th0
2026-07-19HawthorneJavier Tavares?5th5th0
2026-06-28HawthorneJavier Tavares?3rd3rd0
2026-06-09Horseshoe IndianapolisFrank Reyes?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/049/0619/0812/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
10/05/20262nd14/126%88%+0.61
24/05/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
09/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
28/06/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
19/07/20265th20/10%50%+0.50
19/08/20267th33/10%0%0.00
17/09/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
12/10/202610th25/10%18%+0.18