Troubleonthegreen

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 80

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.6

Today:

Class gap: -0.6

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-12	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Marcelino Jr Pedroza	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-09-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Marcelino Jr Pedroza	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Marcelino Jr Pedroza	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-02-05	Tampa Bay Downs	Israel Rodriguez	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-11-13	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Fernando Cruz La De	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2025-10-01	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Fernando Cruz La De	?	4th	3rd	+1	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/09/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	75%	-0.07
01/10/2025	4th	9/2	76%	70%	-0.06
13/11/2025	2nd	5/6	96%	89%	-0.07
05/02/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	90%	+0.64
25/08/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	88%	+0.09
15/09/2026	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07
12/10/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	91%	+0.15