3
Turbeau Man
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 70
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 11th | 15th | −4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Alberto Burgos | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/07/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 01/10/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |