Lady Blast

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 71

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼2

Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-11-28	Fair Grounds	Emanuel Nieves	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-10-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Mitchell Murrill	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2025-09-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Mitchell Murrill	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2025-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Marcelino Jr Pedroza	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 24/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength50%

Delivery trend +14.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/08/2025	6th	14/1	26%	17%	-0.10
16/09/2025	3rd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
16/10/2025	4th	6/4	92%	63%	-0.30
28/11/2025	5th	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60