Risky Wave
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Victor Carrasco | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Victor Carrasco | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | Yedsit Hazlewood | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Turfway Park | Gabriel Saez | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Turfway Park | Gabriel Saez | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | Cristian Torres | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 31/08/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 11/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 06/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 14/10/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |