Jess A Riot
5yo Mare · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Luis Diaz Luna | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Luz Martinez | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Edgar Diaz | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Luis Diaz Luna | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Luz Martinez | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Edgar Diaz | BHA80 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 07/10/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |