4
Moonin To The Jazz
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Giovani Vazquez Gomez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Cristian Penaloza | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Giovani Vazquez Gomez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Giovani Vazquez Gomez | BHA71 | 5th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Giovani Vazquez Gomez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Giovani Vazquez Gomez | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength95%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |