Emerging Market
3yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 108
Keeneland · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Flavien Prat | ? | 10th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 47% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.11 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |