Stowaway
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 108
Keeneland · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Keeneland | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | BHA106 | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | Joseph Ramos | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | Martin Chuan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 03/10/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |