Agate

2yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 13 · OR 96

Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

56%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲4

Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.2

Today:

Class gap: -4.0

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-04	Keeneland	Tyler Gaffalione	?	1st	1st	−0	8.8
2026-09-09	Kentucky Downs	Umberto Rispoli	?	3rd	8th	−4	1.8
2026-07-05	Ellis Park	Umberto Rispoli	?	1st	8th	−6	2.0
2026-05-21	Churchill Downs	Adam Beschizza	?	6th	13th	−6	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength9%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/05/2026	6th	25/1	0%	44%	+0.44
05/07/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
09/09/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	82%	+0.16
04/10/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24