Florida Bay
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 112
Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | W Buick | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | Ronan Whelan | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | Ronan Whelan | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | Wayne Lordan | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | J Cleary | 1 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | J Cleary | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 04/10/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |