4
Haffner
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 111
Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Newmarket | R L Moore | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Curragh | Wayne Lordan | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | R L Moore | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | R L Moore | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | R L Moore | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | Wayne Lordan | ? | 2nd | 11th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 35/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -15.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 91% | +0.86 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |