5
How's Al Today
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 96
Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | Brian Jr Hernandez | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | Brian Jr Hernandez | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saratoga | Luis Saez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |