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2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 96

Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲3

Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.2

Today:

Class gap: -2.9

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Belmont Park	Edgard Zayas	?	1st	1st	−0	8.8
2026-09-12	Woodbine	Edgard Zayas	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-16	Saratoga	Edgard Zayas	?	1st	8th	−6	2.0
2026-07-18	Saratoga	John Velazquez	?	6th	13th	−6	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 53/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength74%

Delivery trend +13.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/07/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/08/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
12/09/2026	5th	20/1	0%	43%	+0.43
03/10/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53