15
Popcorn
2yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 15 · OR 90
Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Keeneland | Axel Concepcion | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | Axel Concepcion | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Emmanuel Esquivel | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 77/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/10/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |