9
Sale Shark
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 104
Keeneland · Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf - Grade 1 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-08-22 | York | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | K Shoemark | 1 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | Oisin Murphy | 1 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | Jason Hart | 4 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 66/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |