Admiral's Order

2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 11 · OR 95

Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-10	Keeneland	Luan Machado	?	2nd	3rd	−1	7.4
2026-09-12	Churchill Downs	Luan Machado	?	7th	2nd	+4	7.7
2026-08-29	Kentucky Downs	Brian Jr Hernandez	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-11	Ellis Park	Luan Machado	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-11 · tight 74/100

▬ EDGING AHEAD

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
29/08/2026	5th	7/1	63%	60%	-0.03
12/09/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
10/10/2026	2nd	13/2	66%	75%	+0.09