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2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 100

Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength31%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-04	Santa Anita	Juan Hernandez	?	2nd	-3th	+4	5.0
2026-09-05	Del Mar	Umberto Rispoli	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -66.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/09/2026	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47
04/10/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	67%	-0.19