Mid American

2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 12 · OR 94

Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-04	Keeneland	Jaime Torres	?	5th	0th	+4	9.9
2026-08-29	Kentucky Downs	Jaime Torres	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-09	Ellis Park	Jaime Torres	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2
2026-07-17	Ellis Park	Yedsit Hazlewood	?	7th	9th	−2	1.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 49/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength23%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/07/2026	7th	12/1	37%	25%	-0.12
09/08/2026	1st	9/1	53%	100%	+0.47
29/08/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
04/10/2026	5th	9/1	53%	56%	+0.03