Nuit D'eclair
2yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 5 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | D Egan | 1 | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-08-08 | Newmarket | D Egan | 1 | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | D Egan | 1 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | D Egan | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -26.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |