Observed

2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 89

Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength32%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Del Mar	Juan Hernandez	?	1st	-4th	+4	5.0
2026-08-04	Horseshoe Indianapolis	Emmanuel Esquivel	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-4 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength70%

Delivery trend +12.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/08/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
05/09/2026	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21