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2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 93

Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼2

Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C2.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-04	Keeneland	Jose Ortiz	?	3rd	-2th	+4	5.0
2026-09-12	Churchill Downs	Emmanuel Esquivel	?	4th	-1th	+4	5.0
2026-07-10	Colonial Downs	Horacio Karamanos	?	1st	3rd	−2	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 52/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength57%

Delivery trend -8.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/07/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
12/09/2026	4th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
04/10/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	78%	+0.09