Roscoe Goose

2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 8 · OR 101

Keeneland · Race 3 - Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength34%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C3.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-03	Belmont Park	Kendrick Carmouche	?	2nd	-3th	+4	5.0
2026-08-16	Saratoga	Kendrick Carmouche	?	2nd	4th	−2	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength77%

Delivery trend -26.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/08/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	90%	+0.53
03/10/2026	2nd	7/1	63%	90%	+0.27