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3

Bob's Carrot

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 101

Keeneland · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Churchill Downs 09/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 6f 118 · below its mark09/11/2025 · OR 90 par9/11C8OR 90C8 @ Churchill Downs 22/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 7f 118 · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 91 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 95 · 6f 119 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 95 par21/12C8OR 95C8 @ Oaklawn Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 89 · 6f 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 89 parC7 @ Oaklawn Park 19/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 93 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 93 par19/03C7OR 93C7 @ Churchill Downs 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 7f Gd 123 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 89 parC7 @ Ellis Park 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 6f 122 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 95 par11/07C7OR 95C7 @ Churchill Downs 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 7f 121 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 101 parC5 @ Keeneland 04/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 103 · 7f 121 · below its mark04/10/2026 · OR 103 par4/10C5OR 103projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04KeenelandJaime Torres?4th4th0
2026-09-16Churchill DownsJaime Torres?1st3rd−2
2026-07-11Ellis ParkJaime Torres?1st3rd−2
2026-05-21Churchill DownsJaime Torres?1st3rd−2
2026-03-19Oaklawn ParkJohan Rosado?3rd5th−2
2026-02-05Oaklawn ParkJaime Torres?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/115/0211/074/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength42%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/20252nd10/1195%83%-0.12
22/11/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
21/12/20257th4/179%25%-0.54
05/02/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
19/03/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
21/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
11/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
16/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
04/10/20264th13/266%73%+0.07