2
Lincoln's Law
3yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 2 · OR 102
Keeneland · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Keeneland | Junior Alvarado | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Axel Concepcion | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | Luis Saez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | Luis Saez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 04/10/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 36% | -0.45 |