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5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 98

Keeneland · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Ellis Park 24/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 102 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark24/08/2025 · OR 102 par24/08C5OR 102C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 100 · 5f 122 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 100 parC6 @ Gulfstream 15/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 100 · 5f110y 121 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 100 par15/11C6OR 100C6 @ Gulfstream 19/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 101 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 101 parC6 @ Gulfstream 11/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 97 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 97 par11/01C6OR 97C8 @ Gulfstream 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 87 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 88 par10/06C7OR 88C7 @ Ellis Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 93 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 93 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 96 · 6f 121 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 96 par12/09C5OR 96projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?3rd3rd0
2026-07-25Ellis ParkBrian Jr Hernandez?2nd4th−2
2026-06-10Churchill DownsBrian Jr Hernandez?1st3rd−2
2026-05-15GulfstreamJoe Bravo?1st4th−3
2026-01-11GulfstreamIrad Ortiz Jr?7th8th−1
2025-12-19GulfstreamTyler Gaffalione?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0819/1210/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength24%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20254th5/696%40%-0.56
15/10/20252nd10/382%90%+0.08
15/11/20252nd11/486%88%+0.02
19/12/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
11/01/20267th10/147%14%-0.33
15/05/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
10/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
25/07/20262nd5/493%75%-0.18
12/09/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07