7
Fusta
2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Churchill Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength21%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |