5
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2yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 80
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Canterbury Park | Manuel Americano | BHA78 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | D E Sheehy | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | William Iii Antongeorgi | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -28.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |