4
Brickyard Belle
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Belmont Park | Manuel Franco | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | Manuel Franco | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-5 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -11.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |