Crownbreaker
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | D Egan | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | D Egan | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | D Egan | 1 | 10th | 11th | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | M Guyon | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | D Egan | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | Rowan Scott | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/07/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 10% | -0.72 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |