Hell Of A Spin

2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 107

Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲1

Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C1.4

Today:

Class gap: -1.2

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-26	Newmarket	Mikey Sheehy	1	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-21	York	Mikey Sheehy	1	3rd	3rd	−0	6.8
2026-07-29	Goodwood	Mikey Sheehy	1	3rd	4th	−0	6.5
2026-07-11	Hamilton	O McSweeney	4	1st	6th	−4	4.4
2026-06-27	Newcastle	Mikey Sheehy	2	2nd	4th	−2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 65/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength94%

Delivery trend +14.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/06/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	80%	+0.27
11/07/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
29/07/2026	3rd	66/1	0%	80%	+0.80
21/08/2026	3rd	18/1	5%	78%	+0.73
26/09/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	67%	+0.67